Post Script

So, with the flurry of emails amongst the grads regarding the recent Chinese economic news, I thought I would add an editorial on my observations. First, please consider this as advice.

Believe your eyes, trust your gut. Things actually are what they appear.


The visit to Xi'an said it all. What we heard was that the Chinese economy was roaring forward at a 9% per year GDP growth, and is expected to do the same for many years to come. What I saw were hundreds of large housing and commercial complexes whose shells were built, or in the process of being built. What I did not see was anyone on these sites continuing the building work, as these projects sit unoccupied. What I saw was a commercial/industrial technology center that had very big plans, in the basement of a very large, almost empty building. Where I come from, that's called a real estate bubble that has burst. What we heard was that China was a currency manipulator, unwilling to strengthen their currency versus the U. S. dollar, thus making Chinese manufactured export goods cheaper. What we saw was China ignoring these claims, expressing concerns over an over heated real estate market, while touting a robust economy. So why then, if the economy was so robust, wouldn't China strengthen their currency? In fact, they made a half hearted political move on June 21 to "make their currency more flexible in the currency market", ahead of the G20 summit later in the week. The announcement lead to a move of .0386 in the Yuan to Dollar , or about .6% (that's pronounced "point 6 percent" - yes, less than 1% change). Why such a small move? Because Chinese officials see that the real estate boom is quickly becoming a bubble, with too much speculation driving up prices. Credit is tightening, constricting the ability for expansion of manufacturing and infrastructure. If they strengthen the Yuan, they hurt their already fragile economy. If China does not announce that they want the currency more flexible, they contradict their own claims of a robust Chinese economy in the process. So finally today, an admission of not so hot GDP growth as forecast (see link below). Back to my original point, believe what you SEE, not what you HEAR. We saw Xi'an and the bubble, all the while hearing about this robust economy and growth in Xi'an. This reminds me of two other situations in which I should have trusted my gut. On one summer day in August of 2004, I was signing my mortgage paperwork to buy my home in New Jersey at the peak of the market. As prices were jumping up by the minute, and bidding wars were the order of the day, and as I signed the mortgage, I remember saying to myself "how can people afford to pay so much of their weekly income on mortgages of this size"? Then I would say "well, they must know what they are doing" (Fanny and Freddie). Then, one day in October of 2007 I was looking at my 401(K) portfolio and saying to myself "jeez, this market is really hot - this is almost unbelievable - is this really sustainable"? I then thought, oh well, "they must know what they're doing" (hedge fund and mutual fund managers). From that day on, the stock market plummeted and did not stop declining until March of 2009.

So you see, trust what you SEE, not what you hear. If it looks like a bubble, chances are it is a bubble. If it looks like speculation, chances are it is. If that voice in your head says "this can't be right", you're probably right.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6600S820100701

Mike in China

Just click on either emblem on this fancy Ralph Lauren shirt and you will be taken to the photo album. Thanks, and see you soon!

Great Trip – I Shall Return

Overall, this was a trip of a lifetime. I had been to PAC countries before, but never had I experienced the blend of cultural education with the team building, and the in depth business education. Dr. Lauren Eder did a fine job preparing everyone for this experience, and I am grateful for having had the opportunity to experience it. Finally, I do not know where this experience will fit into my personal life, and professional career. I do know that I will come back to China, likely to the Shanghai area, as well as visit Vietnam again. I do not wish to waste the in depth knowledge we experienced here, or the great contacts we made. Either way, I feel I am so much better off for having visited these countries and I can’t wait to return. Thank you, Rider.

Scooters, Mopeds and Gas Powered Bikes in Hanoi

CLICK ON THE LINK BELOW TO VIEW THE VIDEO FROM THE STREETS OF HANOI!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OyWXth5NDs8

What Types of scooters did you see? : Kawasaki, Susuki, Vespa and mostly Honda.

How many are sold in one year in Vietnam? 7 - 8 million per year

How many people can fit on one scooter? I saw mostly single rider scooters, however sometimes two people, at times three people - a couple and their young child, sometimes four people - couple and two children, but one time I saw 5 people on one scooter which reminded me of the acrobat show I saw in Hanoi that held 12 women on one bicycle.

Cargo they carry: anything that can be balanced by the driver or the rider - I saw a couch and television on one, 500 pounds of cement on another, pipes, ladders, you name it.

What does the rider/driver wear? Comfortable clothes for the hot daytime, sometimes a helmet, sometimes a breathing mask, at times a riding suit that covers the head, body and hands. When it rains, I saw ponchos coming out of no where - there are ponchos that are made for two people. Footwear is optional, although I did see everything from sandals to high heeled pumps on several business women.

How do they get gas? They get in a long line at the gas station, that moves along very quickly.

What rules of the road do they follow? Very simply, they are bigger than a pedestrian, so they hold the power. However, they must yield to anything larger than they are. I saw two mishaps. They brush themselves off and move on.

Where are all these scooters going? There seems to be millions of them parked at or near places of business in Hanoi. And there seems to be millions of them riding the streets. However, I do not know exactly where they are coming from as I never followed one from point to point. They just seem to appear everywhere when the sun comes up.

Anything else you noticed about scooters? The drivers were looking at me looking at them. They appear very friendly, most of the time waving hello. They do not appear to be in a rush, although they rarely stop for anything even if they have to move laterally in order to avoid obstacles. Once you stop, someone will hit you because no one else stops. Watching them ride is like watching a video game where the object is to meander through traffic without stopping, and without getting killed. Still, I couldn't help wanting to know what it would be like to ride one. The closest I came was to ride in the bicycle rickshaw.

Last Day - Tuesday Transparency International and The United States Embassy

On our last official day in Vietnam, we visited Transparency International, an organization that attempts to assist in curbing corruption in government and business. What was most enlightening was that efforts to change the situation in Vietnam have met with some acceptance, but progress is very slow. Support from interested parties is strong on the surface, but very slow to move toward reform in the real world. We then had another great lunch, and went to the United States Embassy in Hanoi. I must admit it was a great feeling to see the Great Seal of the United States of America on the building, and once inside, it was indeed a great pleasure to see all things U. S., including photos on the walls of landmarks, as well as pictures of our President, V. P. and Secretary of State. What I remember most was the feeling when I saw the American Flag inside the offices. We met with Brent E. Omdahl. He is the commercial attaché in the U. S. Commercial Services Department, and at one time had worked for Amcham. Brent explained that his role is that of support for and creation of U. S. jobs. His office is also responsible for trade promotion portfolio, including services to help U. S. companies sell in Vietnam, commercial advocacy, and commercial diplomacy, including improvement of the business climate for doing business. He cited his work with Lockheed Martin in getting a contract selling to Vietnam, as well as work with the telecommunications industry. He described Vietnam as a “hot market” (where have I heard that before – only everywhere we’ve gone in Vietnam so far). President Obama’s National Export Initiative has a goal of doubling exports in five years, and while that may be aggressive, it is nevertheless a goal to work towards. He mentioned telecommunications and education as two growth exports from the U. S. Brent noted that there is a still developmental need in health care, infrastructure, environmental regulations and assistance programs. He also noted issues with energy, and the need for Vietnam to recognize the value of public-private partnerships in the development of Vietnam. Brent noted that state owned entities make up over 25% of the economy, and Hanoi and Saigon are the two fastest growing cities by populating in the world (WOW), and poverty has dropped in Vietnam to below 11%. This visit was an eye opener, and rounded out our Vietnam tour, building on what we had already learned about the country. I mentioned it before, Vietnam is a country that grabs you and cannot let go. Later that evening, a water puppet show, a trip through the city on the pedacycle, dinner and pack up for the 30 hour trip home (Hanoi to Hong Kong, to Philly).

Everyone is an Entrepreneur in Vietnam

All the homes in Vietnam look like this one. Most families live all generations in one home, each generation on one of the floors. The first floor is built with a wide open front so that the owner may open it up as a place to sell products or services. Everyone in Vietnam is an entrepreneur, and usually works more than one job, and all family members bring home income to be shared by the family. There is very little debt, and like China the savings rate is very high among individuals. Dury our (very hot) tour of the city, we saw the old quarter where street after street was filled with small shops and street vendors selling everything from shoes to paint, to picture frames, to furniture. I would describe it as a horizontal Macy's. We would drive up "shoe street", then turn down "plumbing street", then a left on "electrical wire street". The "please haggle" policy was in effect. Offer one tenth or one twentieth the price and go from there. We saw many important landmarks in Hanoi, including the Ho Chi Minh Mausoleum, the One Pillar Pagoda and the Hanoi Opera House.

Vietnam - Monday May 31 Vietnam Partners Visit

On Monday it was back to work. The team visited with Bradley LaLonde, founder and partner in Vietnam Partners, LLC an investment bank and investment company specializing in the Vietnam market. He was a founding member of the American Chamber of Commerce in China which we visited last week. He described his company as a boutique investment bank with offices in New York, Hanoi and Saigon (Ho Chi Min City). Vietnam has almost 90 million people, with 7 million in Hanoi and 9 million in Saigon. Vietnam’s trade (exports and imports) exceeds their GDP. Major exports include rice, coffee (number one in the world in fact..), pepper and seafood. More people have entered the middle class in Vietnam, and bank accounts have gone from 10,000 in 1995 to over 20 million today. 60% of the population of Vietnam is under 30. The people and the country have almost no debt, and got through the economic crisis almost unscathed. The country is, as Bradley puts it, more open than in China. Japan and Korea have invested heavily in Vietnam with most foreign direct investment going into Vietnamese exports. The banking business is booming here in Vietnam, as is the seafood export business. Taxes are a major problem. There are all kinds of taxes, that make the price of, for example, a General Motors car almost twice the price that is paid in the U. S. Vietnam partners are nevertheless invested in Chrysler Vietnam, and are opening up dealerships to keep up with the skyrocketing demand for cars in this country. They are also involved in residential real estate, which has also been booming. In Vietnam, a citizen may own a home “freehold”, but non citizens can only lease, and even then only up to 50 years after which, like in China, the property goes back to the government, or sell the property to a citizen “freehold”. Vietnam Partners manages two funds, one of which involves large institutional investors. V. P. takes a minority shareholder position in high growth companies that have a competitive or comparative advantage to other countries. They are also involved in bringing in brands like Bugatti motorbikes and Sea-Do personal watercraft, as well as furniture companies and farmed seafood companies. V. P also does consulting and advisory work with respect to regulations in Vietnam. They have created a platform for companies that would like to introduce products into the Vietnam market. Instead of investing in Vietnamese exporting (which V. P does to a smaller extent), V. P. goes the opposite direction, investing in importing and selling to the Vietnamese domestic market. Franchising laws have created an opportunity for franchisers to enter the market with a bit more ease. The biggest difficulty is in finding good managers to run the business. According to Bradley, the biggest opportunities are in the seafood, real estate, furniture markets, or consumer products and services that cater to the fast growing middle class. After this visit, we went to the Temple of Liturature. By this part of the day, the it was getting quite hot out. It is a heat and humidity that make you wet almost instantly when going outdoors. We had a nice dinner, and enjoyed after dinner cocktails at the top floor of the hotel with beutiful panaramic views of the entire city. Hanoi is a city that grows on you. I did not like it immediately, but after being here for some time, it really grabbed me.